Forecasts: Predictions, projections, or estimates of
future situations
Types of Forecasts
Event
outcome forecasts: Predictions of the outcome (effects) of highly probable
future events
Event
timing forecasts: Predictions of when a given event will occur
Time
series forecasts: Estimates of future values in a statistical sequence (e.g.,
sales forecast)
Types of Forecasts
Forecasting Techniques
Informed Judgment: Forecasts relying on intuitive
judgments that are based on how well informed the forecaster is
Scenario Analysis: Preparing written descriptions of
alternative but equally likely future situations.
Longitudinal scenarios: Describing how the future
situations will evolve from the present
Cross-sectional scenarios: Describing future situations
at a given point in time
Surveys
A forecasting technique involving face-to-face
interviews and mail or e-mail questionnaires
Problems with surveys
— Construction
of the survey instrument
— Cost
of administration
— Errors
in data collection and interpretation
Trend Analysis: The hypothetical extension of a past
series of events into the future.
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